The box office is on fire with the latest Avatar installment! 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' blazes with an impressive $12 million in Thursday previews, igniting excitement for its opening weekend.
But here's the catch: it's $5 million shy of its predecessor, 'Avatar: The Way of Water,' which grossed $17 million in previews and went on to dominate with a $53.2 million Friday and a $134.1 million 3-day opening. However, industry insiders remind us that the holiday season is upon us, and audiences will flock to this 3-hour-and-17-minute epic once the festive distractions subside. And when it comes to Avatar, it's a waiting game—January will reveal its true box office might.
Industry trackers predict a $90-105 million domestic weekend for the film, written by James Cameron, Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver, Josh Friedman, and Shane Salerno. This estimate aligns with the performance of similar sequels like Warner Bros.' 'Dune: Part Two,' which, post-COVID, earned $32.2 million on its Friday/previews and culminated in an $82.5 million 3-day opening. It also mirrors Disney/Marvel Studios' Thursday night previews for 'Captain America: Brave New World,' which started at 2 PM and brought in $40.9 million on its first Friday/previews, leading to an $88.8 million 3-day opening.
But here's where it gets interesting: Marvel movies create a sense of urgency with fans, while Avatar movies are more about finding the perfect viewing experience. And speaking of reviews, 'Fire and Ash' currently holds a 69% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, trailing behind the 2009 original's 81% and 'Way of Water's' 76% certified fresh ratings.
Now, let's shift gears to Lionsgate's R-rated thriller, 'The Housemaid,' starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried. It's off to a promising start with previews estimated between $2.25 million and $2.3 million. Industry forecasts initially aimed for $20 million+, but Lionsgate is satisfied with a more modest figure, focusing on a strong holiday season run. Based on the Freida McFadden novel, this Paul Feig-directed thriller boasts a certified fresh rating of 77% on Rotten Tomatoes. Its preview numbers are comparable to pre-COVID hits like 'Hustlers' ($2.5 million previews, $13 million Friday, $33.1 million opening) and 'Don't Worry Darling' ($3.1 million previews, $9.4 million Friday, $19.3 million opening), and it's on par with the PG-13 film 'Where the Crawdads Sing' ($2.3 million previews, $7.2 million Friday, $17.2 million 3-day).
Thursday nights typically don't attract family audiences, but with 8% of K-12 students off on Friday, that number jumps to 81% by Monday, according to ComScore. Angel Studios' animated feature 'David' is expected to bring in around $1.8 million, with many predicting it will secure the No. 2 spot this weekend, raking in $20-25 million. Presales on Thursday totaled $14 million, and while critics give it a 63% fresh rating, audiences on Rotten Tomatoes are raving with a 97% score.
Lastly, Paramount's 'SpongeBob Movie: The Search for Squarepants' is making a splash with $1.3 million in previews, matching DreamWorks Animation's 'Boss Baby 2: Family Business,' which led to a $16 million 3-day opening. The fourth SpongeBob movie is projected to open in the teens to $20 million range, and its reviews are the best in the franchise's history, with an impressive 85% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
And there you have it—a sneak peek into the box office battle. Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' live up to its predecessors? Will 'The Housemaid' clean up at the box office? Share your predictions in the comments, and let's discuss!
