Venezuela's political landscape remains shrouded in uncertainty, with a pivotal figure, Diosdado Cabello, continuing to wield significant influence despite the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. The hopes for a democratic spring in Venezuela may hinge on Cabello's next move.
The recent capture of Maduro by U.S. special forces has sparked optimism for a democratic opening in Venezuela. However, the absence of a 'Venezuelan Spring' can be partly attributed to the continued power of Diosdado Cabello, Maduro's staunchest enforcer, who remains in a position of authority under interim President Delcy Rodríguez.
In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. operation, Cabello, Venezuela's Interior Minister, took to the streets of Caracas, donning a helmet and flak jacket. He vehemently condemned the U.S. action as a "cowardly attack" and urged Venezuelans to resist what he termed a "terrorist enemy." Standing alongside armed security forces, Cabello called for supporters to defend Venezuela's sovereignty and warned opponents of potential consequences for questioning the Bolivarian revolution.
Cabello's actions highlight his unwavering commitment to maintaining power. Like Maduro, he has been indicted in the United States on drug trafficking and narco-terrorism charges, with a $25 million reward offered for information leading to his arrest. Washington alleges that Cabello was a key figure in the Cartel de los Soles, a network of Venezuelan officials involved in cocaine shipments to the U.S. Despite these charges, Cabello remains a central figure in the Venezuelan government, continuing to exert significant influence.
When asked about Cabello at a White House news conference, President Trump seemed unaware of his name. Yet, within Venezuela, Cabello is a notorious figure. With a stocky build and a crew cut, the 62-year-old was a close confidant of Hugo Chávez, the founder of Venezuela's socialist revolution. Their paths crossed during a 1992 military coup attempt, where Cabello led several tanks intended to attack the presidential palace. Although the coup failed, and both men were imprisoned, Chávez's subsequent election in 1998 brought Cabello into his inner circle.
Cabello has held numerous influential positions, including heading the telecommunications regulator, where he played a pivotal role in shutting down TV and radio stations critical of the government. He also briefly served as interim president during a short-lived coup against Chávez in 2002.
Despite being viewed as the next in line for the presidency, Chávez made it clear before his death in 2013 that Maduro would succeed him. Maduro's close ties with Cuban officials, who advised Chávez, solidified this choice.
"It was an open secret in Venezuela that Diosdado Cabello saw himself as the rightful successor to Hugo Chávez, not Maduro," said Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela analyst at the Atlantic Council.
Instead, Cabello went on to lead Venezuela's National Assembly and the ruling Socialist Party. However, due to their rivalry, he was kept out of Maduro's cabinet until 2024, when protests erupted over strong evidence that Maduro had stolen that year's presidential election.
"Maduro needed an enforcer to quell the protests and restore order after the stolen election," Ramsey explained.
Appointed as Interior Minister in 2024, Cabello led a crackdown resulting in the deaths of 24 people and the arrest of over 2,000, according to Human Rights Watch. Now, under interim President Rodríguez, he continues in this role, controlling Venezuela's police force and armed pro-government motorcycle gangs known as colectivos.
Zair Mundaray, a former Venezuelan public prosecutor, believes that the stable business climate sought by the Trump administration to exploit Venezuelan oil is unlikely as long as Cabello remains in power.
"How can there be legal stability when you have a person like Cabello, who has armed thugs on the streets and can create chaos, jail, or kidnap people at will?" Mundaray questioned.
Human rights activists blame Cabello for delays in releasing political prisoners, a government policy announced over a week ago to foster national unity. Additionally, Cabello continues to vilify dissidents on his weekly TV program, "Con el Mazo Dando" ("Hitting with the Hammer"), branding opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize recipient Maria Corina Machado as a "fugitive from Venezuelan justice."
Opposition figures who fled the country express concerns about returning as long as hardliners like Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, who controls the military, remain in the government.
During a panel discussion at Harvard University, Venezuelan economist Ricardo Hausmann stated, "Right now, I cannot go back. You have the colectivos in the streets, and Diosdado Cabello is head of the police. So, the government in Venezuela is essentially the same Chavista government we saw before."
Hausmann believes this could further delay the transition to democracy that the Trump administration claims to support.
Trump has warned of a second wave of military strikes should Maduro's allies, like Cabello, overstep their bounds. Cabello could potentially negotiate a deal and go into exile. Alternatively, he could remain low-key, cooperate with the interim government, and hope to outlast Trump's presidency.
"If Cabello wants to avoid Maduro's fate, his best chance lies in coordinating with Delcy Rodríguez, at least for the time being," Ramsey suggested. "But that doesn't mean he'll abandon his long-held ambitions."
The future of Venezuela's political landscape remains uncertain, with Cabello's next move potentially shaping the country's path towards democracy or continued authoritarian rule.
